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Alternative Thinking

Why Do Most Investors Choose Concentration Over Leverage?

Return-seeking investors must take risks—the question is which to take and to understand the tradeoffs involved. Most investors choose concentration risk, but we present arguments for a different approach.

Alternative Thinking

Ideas for a Low-Expected-Return World

There are different ways to achieve ambitious real return targets, but we think risk-balanced diversification across well-chosen return sources is the most reliable, strategic approach.

Alternative Thinking

Estimating Long Term Expected Returns

Diversification is underutilized in most institutional portfolios but may improve risk-adjusted returns, active returns and total returns more reliably than concentrated positions.

Working Paper

The Bubble Has Not Popped

Many called the stock market “undervalued” in 2002, based on how far and fast it had fallen over the prior two years. But this 2002 article contends that stocks are not necessarily cheap after the decline.

White Paper

Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment

In 2016, bond yields dropped to unprecedented low levels in major developed markets. Even in a low rate environment, we think it’s important to diversify across many return sources.

White Paper

Diversification Revisited

Many investors argue that diversification failed them during the market turmoil of 2007 and 2008. We challenge that line of thinking by examining the performance of different asset allocations through that market downturn.

Alternative Thinking

2014 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We present our capital market assumptions for major asset classes and explore justifiable frameworks for estimating multi-year expected returns.

Alternative Thinking

Strategic Portfolio Construction

When it comes to portfolio construction, many investors seek guidance on “putting it all together.” We discuss our systematic approach and examine how investor-specific beliefs and constraints can inform and interact with formal optimization methods.

Alternative Thinking

Strategic Risk Allocation

We believe investors should broadly diversify and risk balance as a starting point to asset allocation, but perhaps then mildly overweight assets with high Sharpe ratios or good diversification benefits if they can identify these.

Alternative Thinking

Mapping Investable Return Sources to Macro Environments

We explore the empirical relationships between investable strategies (asset classes and style premia) and macroeconomic environments. We find that style premia have meaningfully less macro exposure than do asset classes