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Quick Clips

Quick Clips: New Rules of Diversification

Hear from AQR's Portfolio Solutions Group on the the prospects for stock and bond markets, the impact of macroeconomic risks on a range of investments, and the use of diversifying investments to fortify portfolios.

Alternative Thinking

New Rules of Diversification

During the first half of 2022, equity markets tumbled around 20% from their peak, with losses on typical stock/ bond portfolios almost as large. More worryingly, this type of downturn may be unfamiliar to many younger investors: with inflation still high, there is little prospect of central banks riding to the market’s rescue. We assess the prospects for stock and bond markets after the H1 selloff, consider the impact of macroeconomic risks on a range of investments, and explore the use of diversifying investments to fortify portfolios.

White Paper

Inflation Outlook: the Macro, the Micro, the Transitory

Financial markets have had a relatively muted reaction to the recent bout of higher than expected inflation. We assess what might explain markets’ sanguine response. We explain why we believe there are factors suggesting a return to low inflation readings is unlikely in the near term, and what the investment implications might be of such a scenario.

White Paper

When Stock-Bond Diversification Fails

The events of 2020 to 2021 have increased uncertainty around the future path of inflation. We review how different inflationary outcomes can impact investor portfolios and evaluate what assets and strategies may enhance portfolio resilience to inflation.

White Paper

What Drives Bond Yields?

In this overview of the various factors that influence government bond yields, we show that both in theory and in the data, non-monetary policy factors drive significant variation in yields, particularly at longer maturities. Despite the exceptionally low yield environments we have witnessed, fundamentals continue to drive bond markets.

Alternative Thinking

Fire and Ice: Confronting the Twin Perils of Inflation and Deflation

The COVID-19 pandemic and the responses to it by governments, central banks and consumers have unleashed both disinflationary and inflationary forces, but we do not know which forces will win over the longer term. We explore the historical inflation sensitivities of a range of different investments and present the benefits of both risk-balanced asset allocations and dynamic directional strategies to prepare for uncertain times.

White Paper

It’s Not a Bound; It’s an Opinion

In the second paper of our “Bonds Today” series, we review the popular belief that bond yields are too close to zero to fall much further and then explain why we disagree.

Working Paper

Runs to Banks: The Role of Cash Sweeps During Market Downturns

Sweep deposits from brokerage firms to banks vary inversely with the stock market. Overall, sweep deposits are a primary driver backing the inverse relation between total bank deposits and the stock market, and are not destabilizing, but instead stabilizing for banks as households reduce risk by converting stock to cash during periods of high stress.

Alternative Thinking

Inversion Anxiety: Yield Curves, Economic Growth, and Asset Prices

We evaluate the ability of the yield curve slope to forecast future economic conditions, as well as returns on stocks and bonds, using over 50 years of data across six countries.

Book

20 for Twenty: Selected Papers from AQR Capital Management

20 for Twenty commemorates AQR’s anniversary with a collection of 20 papers that have formed the backbone of our investment philosophy.