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Alternative Thinking

Fire and Ice: Confronting the Twin Perils of Inflation and Deflation

The COVID-19 pandemic and the responses to it by governments, central banks and consumers have unleashed both disinflationary and inflationary forces, but we do not know which forces will win over the longer term. We explore the historical inflation sensitivities of a range of different investments and present the benefits of both risk-balanced asset allocations and dynamic directional strategies to prepare for uncertain times.

'20 Questions

2020 is almost over, but it has left many questions unanswered. This week, I’ll answer eleven of them in a not-so-fond farewell to the year. It will be forecast-free. If you want forecasts you can go to any news site or turn on any TV channel. Or wait in line anywhere. Happy New Year!

Not Your Average Economic Cycle

Market analysis is often based on comparisons with past economic cycles. This week, we look at why we should be cautious in drawing analogies to previous recessions and recoveries.

White Paper

It’s Not a Bound; It’s an Opinion

In the second paper of our “Bonds Today” series, we review the popular belief that bond yields are too close to zero to fall much further and then explain why we disagree.

Election Effects

This week we look at why the market’s reaction to the election results didn’t go according to the consensus script.

Portfolio Politics

It’s good to vote, just not with your portfolio. This week’s Wrap-Up looks at why elections are so difficult to trade.

Global Micro

What do investors want in an equity index? This week we look at what a couple of countries in Asia tell about what’s been driving relative returns.

Inflation Q&A

This week we answer all of the questions you asked about inflation and some you didn’t ask.

Dollar Signs

Stocks are up, but the U.S. dollar is down against many other currencies. Does it feel like the dollar does all of the work but gets none of the credit? This week we look at the unbalanced relationship between U.S. equity markets and the dollar.

Working Paper

Runs to Banks: The Role of Cash Sweeps During Market Downturns

Sweep deposits from brokerage firms to banks vary inversely with the stock market. Overall, sweep deposits are a primary driver backing the inverse relation between total bank deposits and the stock market, and are not destabilizing, but instead stabilizing for banks as households reduce risk by converting stock to cash during periods of high stress.