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Working Paper

Embedded Leverage

Embedded leverage—the amount of market exposure per unit of committed capital—has become an important feature of financial instruments. We study embedded leverage in equity options, index options and ETFs, and how it affects the required returns.

Working Paper

The August of Our Discontent

The summer of 2007 caused some turmoil in the world of quantitative investing, leading to questions about quant investing in general and specific questions about what happened in July and August. We've tried to answer some of those questions here.

Working Paper

Stock Returns, Inflation and the Volatility of Growth in the Money Supply

A large body of work documents a negative relation between expected nominal stock returns and expected inflation in the U.S. and other developed countries. We think the volatility of expected growth in the money supply is a determinant of this relation.

Working Paper

Measuring Systemic Risk

We present a simple model of systemic risk and show how each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured and priced—its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized, which increases in its leverage, volatility, correlation, and tail-dependence.

Working Paper

Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

There isn't much consensus on the structural forces driving the mid-2000s borrowing boom and the consumption slump that followed in the Great Recession. We created a model of household mortgage debt and liquidity management to answer these questions.

Working Paper

Generalized Recovery

We shed new light, both theoretically and empirically, on the Holy Grail in financial economics: decoding probabilities and risk preferences from asset prices.

Working Paper

Asset Tangibility, Macroeconomic Risks and the Diversification Discount

Some research says that conglomerates trade at a discount relative to a comparable group of companies focused on single lines of business, because investors want to diversify. But we find the "diversification discount" varies, and delve into why here.

Journal Article

Where Will Fiscal Stimulus Lead G7 Economies?

The Great Recession has produced a decline of $10 trillion in U.S. household wealth alone. Will the fiscal stimulus by G7 countries guarantee a return to growth, or will the cost of it impede recovery and hamper medium-term prospects?

Journal Article

Exploring Macroeconomic Sensitivities

Forecasting economic and market conditions is no easy task.

Journal Article

When Do Bond Markets Reward Investors for Interest Rate Risk?

Fixed-income portfolio managers pay considerable attention to risk/return tradeoffs.