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Working Paper

Decision-Making Under the Gambler's Fallacy

Reviewing decisions made by judges, loan officers and umpires in high-stakes contexts, we find them to be most consistent with the "gambler's fallacy"—meaning they were based as much on their own previous decisions as on the facts they were weighing.

Working Paper

Acting on the Most Valuable Information: “Best Idea” Trades of Mutual Fund Managers

This paper proposes an ex ante proxy for the ranking of mutual fund trades. We find that the most attractive trades—the “best ideas"—beat the benchmarks by up to about 0.30% per month and outperform other fund trades by even higher margins.

Working Paper

When Is Bargaining Successful? Negotiated Division of Tournament Prizes

High-stakes poker players often negotiate the distribution among a small number of finalists rather than playing through until only one player remains. We find that this setting is ideal for studying bargaining—this paper documents our findings.

Book

A World of Chance: Betting on Religion, Games, Wall Street

Financial markets often try to distance themselves from gambling, but the two have far more in common than is usually thought. This book discusses chance, risk, gambling, insurance, and speculation across history and into the future.

White Paper

The Case for Momentum Investing

Although a powerful investment style, momentum was largely unavailable to many investors. The introduction of the AQR Momentum Indices has been a pivotal development in momentum’s acceptance as an investment strategy.

Interview

Words from the Wise: An Interview with Richard Thaler

Richard Thaler, a founding father of behavioral finance and the 2017 recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics, discusses his pioneering research, including how our behaviors influence decision making and investing and what to do about it.

Interview

Words From the Wise: Jack Bogle on Building a Better Investment Industry

An executive summary of the main themes explored in a question-and-answer session with John C. Bogle.

Perspective

Banter Is Coming

We have a lot of great topics and special guests coming up on season two of The Curious Investor.

Perspective

Our Hat into the Podcasting Ring

Cliff discusses the launch of the AQR podcast, The Curious Investor.