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Working Paper

Understanding Momentum and Reversals

Stock momentum, long-term reversal, and other past return characteristics that predict future returns also predict future realized betas, suggesting these characteristics capture time-varying risk compensation.

Working Paper

Beyond Basis Basics: Leverage Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price

Bases are driven by intermediaries’ cost of capital and the amount of leverage demand for an asset. Focusing on leverage demand, we find bases negatively predict futures and spot market returns with the same sign in both global equities and currencies.

Working Paper

How Do Factor Premia Vary Over Time? A Century of Evidence

We examine four prominent factor premia – value, momentum, carry, and defensive – over a century from six asset classes. The results offer support for time-varying risk premia models with important implications for theory seeking to explain the sources of factor returns.

Journal Article

Can Machines "Learn" Finance?

Can Machines “Learn” Finance?” was named the winner of the 2020 Harry M. Markowitz Award. Machine learning for asset management faces a unique set of challenges that differ markedly from other domains where machine learning has excelled. We discuss a variety of beneficial use cases and potential pitfalls for machine learning in asset management, and emphasize the importance of economic theory and human expertise for achieving success through financial machine learning.

Working Paper

Trading Costs

Using live trade data from a large institutional money manager over a 19-year period, we find actual trading costs to be an order of magnitude smaller than previous studies suggest.

Journal Article

Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Despite its long and illustrious history, much confusion about the size effect remains. We examine common claims about the size effect and seek to clarify some of the misunderstanding surrounding it.

Working Paper

Implementing Momentum: What Have We Learned?

We use seven years of live data to evaluate the implementability of momentum investing.

Journal Article

Momentum Crashes

A momentum strategy is a bet that past returns will predict future returns in the cross-section of assets, and is typically implemented by buying past winners and selling past losers.

Journal Article

Fact, Fiction and Value Investing

Value investing has been a part of the investment lexicon for at least the better part of a century, yet confusion about it remains.

Working Paper

Decision-Making Under the Gambler's Fallacy

Reviewing decisions made by judges, loan officers and umpires in high-stakes contexts, we find them to be most consistent with the "gambler's fallacy"—meaning they were based as much on their own previous decisions as on the facts they were weighing.