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Working Paper

Biases in Long-Horizon Predictive Regressions

This paper derives the small sample bias of estimators in J horizon predictive regressions, providing a plug-in adjustment for these estimators. A number of surprising results emerge, including a higher bias for overlapping than nonoverlapping regressions despite the greater number of observations and particularly higher bias for an alternative long-horizon predictive regression commonly advocated for in the literature.

Journal Article

Is (Systematic) Value Investing Dead?

Undoubtedly, many systematic approaches to value investing have suffered recently. However, we find the popular suggestion that value investing is dead to be premature. We find expectations of fundamental information have been and continue to be an important driver of security returns.

Working Paper

How Do Factor Premia Vary Over Time? A Century of Evidence

We examine four prominent factor premia – value, momentum, carry, and defensive – over a century from six asset classes. The results offer support for time-varying risk premia models with important implications for theory seeking to explain the sources of factor returns.

Journal Article

Should Taxable Investors Shun Dividends?

We evaluate the tax benefit of dividend avoidance for quantitative multi-style strategies and find that dividend avoidance generally reduces implementation efficiency, thus lowering expected pre-tax returns.

Journal Article

Can Machines "Learn" Finance?

Can Machines “Learn” Finance?” was named the winner of the 2020 Harry M. Markowitz Award. Machine learning for asset management faces a unique set of challenges that differ markedly from other domains where machine learning has excelled. We discuss a variety of beneficial use cases and potential pitfalls for machine learning in asset management, and emphasize the importance of economic theory and human expertise for achieving success through financial machine learning.

Working Paper

Trading Costs

Using live trade data from a large institutional money manager over a 19-year period, we find actual trading costs to be an order of magnitude smaller than previous studies suggest.

Journal Article

Long Horizon Predictability: A Cautionary Tale

We show there is much less evidence of long-horizon return predictability than existing research suggests, casting doubt over claims about forecasts based on stock market valuations and factor timing.

Journal Article

Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

Despite its long and illustrious history, much confusion about the size effect remains. We examine common claims about the size effect and seek to clarify some of the misunderstanding surrounding it.

Journal Article

Common Factors in Corporate Bond and Bond Fund Returns

This paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of cross-sectional determinants of corporate bond excess returns. We find strong evidence of positive risk-adjusted returns to measures of carry, defensive, momentum and value.

Journal Article

Craftsmanship Alpha: An Application to Style Investing

What may seem like inconsequential design decisions can actually matter a lot for style portfolios. In fact, the skillful targeting and capturing of style premia may constitute a form of alpha on its own—one we refer to as “craftsmanship alpha.”