The Long Run Is Lying to You

Everyone knows the value strategy has been a grave disappointment out-of-sample since, say, 1990, based on realized returns. However, odd as it might sound, the realized average return on a strategy is not necessarily the best estimate of its true long-term expected return. In fact, the right estimate of the true long-term expected return of the value strategy is considerably higher than many might think if they were to just look at simple past returns – especially right now. Why? I explain it in this note (spoiler: it has to do with changes in valuation).

White Paper

Value and Interest Rates: Are Rates to Blame for Value’s Torments? (Summary)

This brief summary of our paper “Value and Interest Rates” presents our findings on the effect of the interest rate environment on value’s prospects. It highlights the ambiguous theoretical links between value and rates, reviews the varied historical patterns between value and different aspects of the rate environment, and presents a case study on value and interest rates in Q1 2020.


Is (Systematic) Value Investing Dead?

When value has underperformed for so long, it’s natural and proper that people wonder if it’s ever going to work again. To test the popular explanations for why value investing is “broken,” Cliff tweaks the value factor’s construction to remove the stocks that best fit these stories. He finds no “this time is different” explanation holds water, affirming our belief that the medium-term odds are rather dramatically on value’s side.


It’s Time for a Venial Value-Timing Sin

Cliff discusses how to measure whether a factor, in this case the value factor, is itself rich or cheap versus history. The answer, regardless of the approach taken in measuring cheapness, is that value is currently quite cheap compared to history.


Liquid Alt Ragnarök? (Condensed)

As promised, for those looking for a more manageable read, here is a condensed, “medium” length version of my recent much longer post.

Working Paper

How Do Factor Premia Vary Over Time? A Century of Evidence

We examine four prominent factor premia – value, momentum, carry, and defensive – over a century from six asset classes. The results offer support for time-varying risk premia models with important implications for theory seeking to explain the sources of factor returns.

Journal Article

Deep Value

We examine the efficacy of a hypothetical deep value strategy—where the valuation spread between cheap and expensive securities is wide relative to its history—across global asset classes and also provide new evidence on competing theories for the value premium.

Journal Article

Fact, Fiction and Value Investing

Value investing has been a part of the investment lexicon for at least the better part of a century, yet confusion about it remains.

Journal Article

Value and Momentum Everywhere

We find consistent value and momentum return premia across eight diverse markets and asset classes, and a strong common factor structure among their returns.

Journal Article

The Devil in HML's Details

This paper challenges the standard method for measuring “value” used in academic work on factor pricing.