Alternative Thinking

It Was the Worst of Times: Diversification During a Century of Drawdowns

We use nearly 100 years of data to evaluate the effectiveness of diversifying investments during the worst of times for most portfolios and find that attempting to tactically avoid equity sell-offs is likely to disappoint.

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Global Macro

Fundamental Trends and Dislocated Markets: An Integrated Approach to Global Macro Investing

We explore the benefits of combining two approaches to Global Macro investing – one systematic and the other opportunistic – into a single integrated strategy.

Macroeconomics

Winter is Coming Before Brexit

Does reading about Brexit make you feel like a guest of Ramsay Bolton? This week we try to give you a clear account of what is going on and what to look for in markets. It won’t bring peace to the Seven Kingdoms, but it may answer some of your questions about Brexit

Macroeconomics

Return of the Mammoths

Several reports in the past month indicate that mortgage convexity hedgers are back. These reports bring up three important questions. First: what are mortgage convexity hedgers? Second: where did they go? Third: why do I care? At least two of these questions will be answered this week.

Tax Aware

Understanding the Tax Efficiency of Relaxed-Constraint Equity Strategies

A guide to tax-aware relaxed constraint strategies that also tries to enlighten investors on the nuances around tax benefits by comparing different tax-aware strategies with an equity beta of one.

Macroeconomics

Graaaaaains

For much of the past few years grain markets have been like zombies wandering aimlessly. Some recent developments such as trade talks with China and floods in the Midwest may change that. It will be a nice break from Brexit.

Macroeconomics

Three Countries Which Have Never Been in My Kitchen

Australia, Canada and Sweden don't have much in common. If those three countries came up as the Final Jeopardy answer it would be tough to come up with the right question. Perhaps, "what are three economies which have seen their once hot housing markets slow in the past two years?" would be acceptable.

Macroeconomics

What They Say, Not What They Do

It’s not a good idea to stare at your P&L all day. It addictive and you see things which don’t make sense. This week’s Wrap-Up is about the puzzling stock market moves after the ECB meeting last week. It’s for anyone whose portfolio has ever had a bad reaction to a good news story.

Macroeconomics

Does Anyone Remember the Carry Trade?

This week’s Wrap-Up looks at carry portfolios and carry trades and why commentators may be avoiding the topic.

Macroeconomics

Jobs Are Good

This week we look at why stocks sometimes react positively to strong employment numbers, while other times they don't. We promise it will be more exciting than the Super Bowl half-time show was.

Asset Allocation

2019 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes, including private equity and private real estate.